The Inflation Regime Shift — CPI Distribution Across OECD-20, by Decade

Ridge plots reveal not just average inflation but its shape — the width of the distribution tells you how synchronised economies were. In the 1990s, the distribution was fat and right-skewed: Portugal (13%) and Korea (9%) still carried high rates while Japan and Germany anchored the left tail. The 2000s and 2010s show the Great Moderation — a narrow, low peak clustered near 2%, with central banks having earned credibility. The 2020s shock is stark: the distribution widens dramatically and shifts right, with the Netherlands hitting 11.6% and the UK 9.1% — the widest spread across advanced economies in thirty years. Tick marks on each baseline show individual country-year observations.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 · Indicator: PCPI_PCH · OECD-20 economies · schema: country_year_indicators.csv · KDE bandwidth = Silverman's rule × 1.2

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