Grow, Attract, Die

America's population story is undergoing its most dramatic rewrite in history. Natural population growth (births minus deaths) has driven U.S. growth for decades, but new data reveals a fundamental transformation in how our nation grows.

The demographic inflection point was reached in 2020, when international migration emerged as the primary driver of U.S. population growth, overtaking natural increase for the first time. This historic shift marks a new chapter in American demographics.

The Natural Growth Crisis

U.S. birth rates have fallen 20% since their 2007 peak, reaching a record low of 1.6 children per woman in 2022. Meanwhile, deaths increased 19% from 2019 to 2020 during the pandemic's peak, and continue trending upward as Baby Boomers age. Natural population growth hit its lowest point in a century, adding just 0.1% to the population in 2023.

Immigration Takes the Lead

Census Bureau data shows international migration contributed 1.1 million people in 2023—more than three times the natural growth rate. This surge accounts for over 75% of total population gains. These newcomers are filling critical workforce gaps: representing 45% of software engineers, 38% of physicians, and launching 44% of new businesses in top-performing sectors.

Reshaping American Society

This seismic demographic shift demands an adaptive response from public and private leaders. Because cities everywhere are grappling with how to expand housing and transit systems, firms are more flexible with remote and non-traditional candidates, and healthcare providers are responding to market demand by developing culturally competent care models.

The ability to attract the best and brightest from all over has always been America's superpower, but now it is existential.