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Understand economic power before it becomes consensus

Reports, memos, essays, and data on the forces reshaping markets, policy, and technology.

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The Arsenal as Portfolio
ESSAY · CAPITAL MARKETS

The Arsenal as Portfolio

Prime contractors are acquiring options on the future industrial base with a rounding error of capital, and the sequence rather than the sum is what should concern policymakers.

Brendan HartJUL 27, 2026 · 13 min
The AI Arms Race Is Becoming a Contest for Industrial Power
ESSAY · STRATEGIC COMPETITION

The AI Arms Race Is Becoming a Contest for Industrial Power

The real question is which company can turn capital expenditure into a self-reinforcing system of lower computing costs, stronger models, broader distribution, higher utilization, and recurring revenue.

Brendan HartJUL 23, 2026 · 8 min
The Arithmetic of Power
REPORT · STRATEGIC COMPETITION

The Arithmetic of Power

Winning, Losing, and Competing in the 21st Century

Brendan HartJUL 23, 2026 · 15 min
The IndexUpdated

The advanced intelligence layer

Updated as source data is released; indicators have different publication lags.

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Featured indicatorWorld Trade Intensity
68.5%+11.8 ppvs. 2024
Source: World Bank WDI · data through 2025
IndicatorLatestChangeData throughTrend
US GDP Growth+2.2%-0.6 ppvs. 20242025
US Government Effectiveness1.44+0.02 ptsvs. 20222023
World Trade Intensity68.5%+11.8 ppvs. 20242025
US Political Stability0.14+0.05 ptsvs. 20222023
World Bank WDI · data through 2025Explore the full index
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