Understand economic power before it becomes consensus
Reports, memos, essays, and data on the forces reshaping markets, policy, and technology.
Recently published research
Jackson Hole and the Conditions for Credible Discretion
Kevin Warsh has pulled the Federal Reserve back from forward guidance. His first Jackson Hole address must show how a more restrained communications regime will preserve a clear monetary-policy rule.
The Yen Problem
Currency intervention moves a price. It does not replace the market mechanism. The yen is now the clearest live test of that distinction, and the outcome matters for how every government defends a currency it does not fully control.
The Saudi Nuclear Deal Tests the Value of American Influence
The agreement could support Saudi industrial development, strengthen the U.S. nuclear sector, and prevent China or Russia from becoming Riyadh’s principal nuclear partner.
The Power Curve 2026 Outlook
2026 is the year of capability concentration, institutional drift, and the multi-pole order.
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The advanced intelligence layer
Updated as source data is released; indicators have different publication lags.
| Indicator | Latest | Change | Data through | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP Growth | +2.2% | down -0.6 ppvs. 2024 | 2025 | |
| US Government Effectiveness | 1.44 | up +0.02 ptsvs. 2022 | 2023 | |
| World Trade Intensity | 68.5% | up +11.8 ppvs. 2024 | 2025 | |
| US Political Stability | 0.14 | up +0.05 ptsvs. 2022 | 2023 |
Investigating economic power
- 01Advanced TechnologyCompute, chips, AI, and frontier capacity.
- 02Capital MarketsLiquidity, risk, allocation, and leverage.
- 03Cities and InfrastructureHousing, transport, energy, and innovation.
- 04Risk and ResilienceShocks, bottlenecks, redundancy, and exposure.
- 05State CapacityPermitting, procurement, delivery, and trust.
- 06Strategic CompetitionPower, standards, supply chains, and deterrence.