Understand economic power before it becomes consensus
Reports, memos, essays, and data on the forces reshaping markets, policy, and technology.
Recently published research
The Saudi Nuclear Deal Tests the Value of American Influence
The agreement could support Saudi industrial development, strengthen the U.S. nuclear sector, and prevent China or Russia from becoming Riyadh’s principal nuclear partner.
Diffusion and Control
The July breach separated corporate control of a model from operational control of its behavior, and moved the American AI question from the frontier to the deployment layer.
The Arsenal as Portfolio
Prime contractors are acquiring options on the future industrial base with a rounding error of capital, and the sequence rather than the sum is what should concern policymakers.
The Power Curve 2026 Outlook
2026 is the year of capability concentration, institutional drift, and the multi-pole order.
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The advanced intelligence layer
Updated as source data is released; indicators have different publication lags.
| Indicator | Latest | Change | Data through | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP Growth | +2.2% | down -0.6 ppvs. 2024 | 2025 | |
| US Government Effectiveness | 1.44 | up +0.02 ptsvs. 2022 | 2023 | |
| World Trade Intensity | 68.5% | up +11.8 ppvs. 2024 | 2025 | |
| US Political Stability | 0.14 | up +0.05 ptsvs. 2022 | 2023 |
Investigating economic power
- 01Advanced TechnologyCompute, chips, AI, and frontier capacity.
- 02Capital MarketsLiquidity, risk, allocation, and leverage.
- 03Cities and InfrastructureHousing, transport, energy, and innovation.
- 04Risk and ResilienceShocks, bottlenecks, redundancy, and exposure.
- 05State CapacityPermitting, procurement, delivery, and trust.
- 06Strategic CompetitionPower, standards, supply chains, and deterrence.