Capital
The location and direction of investable capital: cross-border flows, sovereign and institutional allocation, and the cost of financing. Capital is the clearest leading signal of where capability will be built next.
Methodology
How we measure where power is moving
Two instruments sit behind the research: a weekly index that tracks the balance of economic power, and a public record of falsifiable calls we revise as the evidence moves. This page documents how both are built.
01
The instrument
The Power Curve Index
A single weekly measure, indexed to 2016 = 100, that distills four forces into one read on where economic power is moving — built to surface a structural shift before it reaches the headlines.
What it measures
Four components
Compute
Access to and control over computational capacity, the hardware supply chain, and the energy that powers it. Compute has become a primary constraint on technological and economic advantage.
Institutions
The capacity of states, firms, and institutions to convert resources into operating capability: execution, governance, and the ability to act under uncertainty rather than stall at ambition.
Trade exposure
The degree to which an economy is exposed to, or insulated from, the fragmentation of supply chains, trade routes, and strategic inputs. Exposure measures fragility and leverage in the same number.
Construction
How the index is built
Each component is assembled from a basket of underlying indicators, normalized to a common 2016 = 100 base so that levels are comparable across components and over time. The composite is a transparent weighted average of the four, with weights held fixed between annual reviews so that week-to-week movement reflects the data, not a change in method.
The series updates weekly. Revisions to source data are carried forward rather than smoothed away, and the full component breakdown is published alongside the composite so readers can see which force is driving a move.
- Normalize every indicator to 2016 = 100
- Aggregate indicators into four components
- Combine components into a fixed-weight composite
- Publish the composite and the breakdown weekly
Reading the index
What a move means, and what it does not
- A rising component signals capability accumulating faster than the 2016 baseline — not a forecast of price or policy.
- The composite is a direction-of-travel measure, designed for interpretation rather than trading.
- Levels are comparable across components because all share the same base year.
- Weights are fixed between annual reviews, so weekly movement is data, not redefinition.
02
The discipline
Forward calls
Every forward call is a specific, testable claim drawn from a published report. Each carries a probability we are willing to state in public, and we revise it openly as the evidence moves. A call you cannot be wrong about is not worth making.
How a call is made
From report to probability
A testable claim
Each call states a concrete outcome and the mechanism behind it, drawn from a published report. It is written so a future observer can judge it true or false rather than merely plausible.
A base probability
We assign a base-case probability that reflects our central view of how the world is most likely to unfold. It is a considered judgment, stated as a number so it can be tracked and held to account.
A public revision
As evidence arrives, the probability is revised in public and the revision date is recorded. The direction and size of each revision is itself a signal about how the picture is changing.
Scenario repricing
How calls move under different worlds
Each call carries a set of sensitivities: how its probability shifts under alternative macro scenarios. A reader can see not only what we expect, but how much our conviction depends on the world staying close to the base case.
The homepage tool lets you reprice every call under each scenario. The base case is our central view; the others trace how the odds respond when the macro environment changes.
- Base case. Disinflation continues unevenly, capex stays elevated, fragmentation deepens at the margin.
- Soft landing. Inflation returns to target without a recession; risk appetite broadens.
- Higher for longer. Sticky services inflation keeps policy tight; refinancing and concentration risks intensify.
- Energy shock. A supply disruption reprices energy, compute, and inflation at once.
Principles
The discipline behind the numbers
- Every call is falsifiable and tied to a published argument.
- Probabilities are revised in public, with the date of each revision on the record.
- Method is held fixed between scheduled reviews so movement reflects evidence.
- The index informs interpretation and decisions; it is not investment advice.
Read on
See the methods at work
The index and the forward calls are live on the homepage. The reports behind each call set out the full argument.