The Development Path
Income against longevity for six major economies, traced year by year, 2000 to 2024
- Unit
- US$ per capita · years
- Frequency
- Annual
- Coverage
- 2000–2024
- Evidence Quality
- Medium
Income against longevity for six economies, traced year by year — the Preston curve in motion, with China sweeping rightward and the US rich but flat.
Connected scatter plot. GDP per capita, current US$ (log x) × life expectancy, years (y) — each path is one country over 2000–2024. It covers United States, China, India, Germany, Japan and Brazil.
Points are paired by year on the intersection of the two series (2000–2024); the x axis is logarithmic because income spans two orders of magnitude.
Question
As economies grow richer, how much longer do their people live — and who is moving fastest along that curve?
Evidence
Each path plots one country's income (GDP per capita, current US$, log scale) against its life expectancy, one point per year from 2000 to 2024. The relationship is the classic Preston curve: longevity rises steeply with income at low levels and flattens at high ones. China's path is the standout — it swept rightward across the chart as GDP per capita went from under $1,000 in 2000 to roughly $13,000 by 2024, while its life expectancy climbed into the high-70s.
Observation
Follow the path in time order; the loops and reversals are the story.
Read each path left-to-right in time, not the whole field top-to-bottom. Horizontal distance is income growth (on a log axis, so equal steps are equal multiples); vertical distance is years of life gained. The latest point of each path is the enlarged dot.
Assessment
- China is the great mover: GDP per capita rose roughly fourteenfold between 2000 and 2024, sweeping its path from the low-income left to the middle of the field.
- India made the largest longevity gain of the six — life expectancy rose from about 62.8 years in 2000 to about 72.2 in 2024 — even while it remained the poorest on income.
- The United States is the paradox at the rich end: by far the highest income, near $86,000 in 2024, yet the smallest life-expectancy gain of the six (about 76.6 to 78.9 years) — a nearly flat, mostly-horizontal path.
Advantage
- How rich is each economy in real, cost-adjusted terms?Purchasing Power
- Who spends most on keeping people alive?Health Spending
- How fast is the population aging?The Aging Society