The Development Path
Income against longevity for six major economies, traced year by year, 2000 to 2024
- Unit
- US$ per capita · years
- Frequency
- Annual
- Coverage
- 2000–2024
- Evidence Quality
- Medium
Income traced against longevity, year by year, puts the Preston curve in motion for six economies, with China sweeping rightward and the US rich but flat.
Connected scatter plot. GDP per capita, current US$ (log x) × life expectancy, years (y) — each path is one country over 2000–2024. It covers United States, China, India, Germany, Japan and Brazil.
Points are paired by year on the intersection of the two series (2000–2024); the x axis is logarithmic because income spans two orders of magnitude.
Question
As economies grow richer, how much longer do their people live — and who is moving fastest along that curve?
Evidence
Each path plots one country's income (GDP per capita, current US$, log scale) against its life expectancy, one point per year from 2000 to 2024. The relationship is the classic Preston curve: longevity rises steeply with income at low levels and flattens at high ones. China's path is the standout — it swept rightward across the chart as GDP per capita went from under $1,000 in 2000 to roughly $13,000 by 2024, while its life expectancy climbed into the high-70s.
Observation
Follow the path in time order; the loops and reversals are the story.
Read each path left-to-right in time, not the whole field top-to-bottom. Horizontal distance is income growth (on a log axis, so equal steps are equal multiples); vertical distance is years of life gained. The latest point of each path is the enlarged dot.
Assessment
- China is the great mover: GDP per capita rose roughly fourteenfold between 2000 and 2024, sweeping its path from the low-income left to the middle of the field.
- India made the largest longevity gain of the six — life expectancy rose from about 62.8 years in 2000 to about 72.2 in 2024 — even while it remained the poorest on income.
- The United States is the paradox at the rich end: by far the highest income, near $86,000 in 2024, yet the smallest life-expectancy gain of the six (about 76.6 to 78.9 years) — a nearly flat, mostly-horizontal path.
Advantage
- How rich is each economy in real, cost-adjusted terms?Purchasing Power
- Who spends most on keeping people alive?Health Spending
- How fast is the population aging?The Aging Society