Memos

Insight before it
becomes consensus

Short analysis on what changed, why it matters, and what to watch next.

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The New York Premium

CITIES & INFRASTRUCTUREJUN 20269 MIN READ

A city moving more, growing safer, and becoming more expensive at the same time.

Latest memos

JUL28Diffusion and ControlARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE · 15 MIN READThe July breach separated corporate control of a model from operational control of its behavior, and moved the American AI question from the frontier to the deployment layer.
JUL22The White House Report on ScienceSTATE CAPACITY · 11 MIN READThe report gets the facts right, but draws the wrong conclusions.
JUL22The Depreciating WeaponSTRATEGIC COMPETITION · 17 MIN READWashington has made financial sanctions the center of its statecraft. In 2026 each use imposed real pain and quietly moved the world closer to the day it can route around the dollar that gives sanctions their force.
JUL17The CrosscurrentCITIES & INFRASTRUCTURE · 6 MIN READA war premium in energy and a capital boom in artificial intelligence are splitting the world economy into two circuits that one interest rate cannot govern.
JUL17Cheap MajoritiesSTATE CAPACITY · 13 MIN READEchelon's July survey priced two majorities, and both collapsed.

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