Memos
Insight before it becomes consensus
Analysis on what changed, why it matters, and what to watch next.
Latest memo
The New York Premium
A city moving more, growing safer, and becoming more expensive at the same time.
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Rates held, risk repricedTerm premia rose; duration sold off.
Compute bottlenecks persistLead times extended across GPUs and HBM.
Deterrence spending acceleratesBudgets shift toward readiness and redundancy.
Memo stream
22 memosJun 242026Capital MarketsRegime Change, QuietlyKevin Warsh was installed to cut interest rates, but his first month at the Federal Reserve signaled something larger, and more disciplined.9 minMay 42026State CapacityThe Price That Prices the WorldBrent crude has risen roughly 70 percent since February5 minApr 282026Capital MarketsThe Most Profitable Business Ever BuiltHow Alphabet stands apart9 minApr 272026Strategic CompetitionAsymmetric AllianceHard break in the special relationship4 minApr 242026Capital MarketsThe Split and the ConvergenceBlackRock scaled the flow, Blackstone engineered the outcome.6 minApr 232026Capital MarketsCapital is KingAnalyzing three decades of foreign direct investment4 minApr 212026Capital MarketsWarsh Over TimeNotable speeches from the presumptive Fed Chair9 minApr 152026Cities & InfrastructureEconomics from A to ZLanguage as a public goodShort readApr 92026Advanced TechnologyThe Tipping PointBecoming the leader in scientific research and development5 minApr 82026Advanced TechnologyIndustrial Policy in the Age of AIOpenAI starts a conversation1 minMar 252026Cities & InfrastructureHow Maryland's Economy ComparesA decade of outperformance is tested7 minMar 192026State CapacityThe Bill That Could Have Changed American Democracy19th-century effort to stop Southern disfranchisement4 minMar 162026Strategic CompetitionGlobal Growth May Be DoomedDark clouds on the growth horizon3 minMar 132026Risk & ResilienceThe Gordian Knot of EmissionsDirty Growth or Clean Stagnation2 minFeb 132026Risk & ResilienceThe Great Energy SurgeTwo centuries, compounding demand4 minFeb 122026Capital MarketsHousing Market BluesJanuary sales post sharpest drop in nearly four years2 minJan 282026Strategic CompetitionTrends in US-China PowerMapping military advantages—why speed matters more than scale4 minJan 162026Capital MarketsThe Federal Reserve is at a Breaking PointHow Politics and Personnel Are Reshaping American Monetary Policy11 minJan 142026Capital MarketsThe Federal Reserve's Split PersonalityHow a century-old compromise built a central bank no president can control6 minDec 122025Strategic CompetitionChina is an Energy MonsterOn issues of climate change, China stands apart.Short readSep 292022State CapacityMan in the ArenaTheodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne in Paris on April 23, 191033 min