An independent authority on economic power

How economic advantage takes shape

The Power Curve examines where economic power is accumulating, what drives the shift, and how it changes the decisions facing leaders. We focus on developments that reshape the allocation of capital, the terms of competition, and the choices available to governments and businesses.

Our method is structural. We begin with incentives: what institutions and firms are rewarded for doing. We then examine capacity: the resources, capabilities, and constraints that determine what they can deliver. Together, these help explain whether an announced ambition can become a lasting economic advantage.

Each report, memo, and essay identifies the driver that matters most, traces how its effects compound, and assesses where constraints could alter its course. We distinguish durable shifts from temporary movements, observed outcomes from causal explanations, and established evidence from assumptions that remain uncertain.

The objective is to make consequential change legible early enough to act. For capital, that means understanding where returns may concentrate and risks may be mispriced. For policy, it means identifying which interventions can change outcomes and which constraints will limit them. For business, it means deciding where to commit resources, where to preserve flexibility, and what evidence would justify a change in strategy.