DATA ROOMLIVE

The advanced data engine powering
our economic intelligence.

This data room underpins our work. Market indicators refresh continuously, the cycle model re-prices under each scenario you select, and the maps pinpoint today's risks and tomorrow's opportunities.

DATA ROOM SNAPSHOT--:-- ET
Composite index--
Cycle regimeLate cycle
Recession odds · 12mo34%
FEED ACTIVE · next model run 16:00
01The Power Curve CompositeProprietary cycle indicator · 14 inputs
Composite index & forward fan
Indexed to 100 at Jan 2019 · monthly · forward paths from Jun 2026
HistorySelected pathConfidence bandBearBaseBull
REGIME READOUT
Late cycleCONTRACTION RISK
RecoveryExpansionLateContraction
Model confidence78%
12-mo recession odds34%

The composite blends fourteen leading and coincident series across labor, credit, and rates into a single cycle reading. Read the methodology →

02The Uninsurable MapWhere climate risk is repricing the union
Property risk, by state
Homeowner premiums are climbing fastest where exposure concentrates. The coastal South and the wildfire West now carry the steepest curves in the country.
PREMIUM GROWTH · YOY
+3%+41%
NATIONAL MEDIAN
+12%
Roughly four points above the pace of shelter inflation, and accelerating.
STEEPEST CURVES
03The Long DollarMajor economies, priced against the United States
The world against the dollar
Most major currencies have lost ground to the dollar this year. The cool tiles are the handful holding or gaining; the warm tiles are giving way.
CURRENCY VS USD · YTD
weakerflatstronger
BROAD DOLLAR · YTD
+4.6%
The trade-weighted dollar has firmed against most of its partners since January.
GIVING WAY FASTEST
04The Macro WallNine series we track on every release
05Interrogate the dataSelect a question. The Data Room answers from the data on this page.
06Models & MethodologyHow our models are built

The Index is an evolving research layer. Current exhibits show the structure of the analytical framework; additional live datasets and methodology notes will be released over time. This is not investment guidance.