Explore the Power Curve Index preview
Our analytical frameworks for the economic cycle, currencies, and insurance risk, with illustrative scenarios beside the observed indicators our research tracks.
How to read this page
The Index is a preview. Its model readings are illustrative simulations, and its market and descriptive data are observed figures from the sources named beside them. Every section carries one of five labels.
- Market data:
- current or delayed prices and yields from market data providers.
- Descriptive data:
- observed economic, financial, and policy measures, fetched from public sources and refreshed daily.
- Illustrative model output:
- simulated readings that show how The Power Curve's models would organize the evidence.
- Live production output:
- readings from a documented production model running on current inputs. No model on this page has reached this status yet.
- Editorial judgment:
- interpretation by The Power Curve.
The strip at the top of the page tracks the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, DXY, EUR/USD, Brent crude, WTI crude, gold, bitcoin, and the VIX. Quotes come from Financial Modeling Prep, with Yahoo Finance as a fallback, and refresh every five minutes; they may be delayed, and the timestamp shows the last successful refresh.
The Composite organizes fourteen leading and coincident indicators across labor, credit, rates, and activity into a single cycle reading, indexed to 100 at January 2019. It answers two questions on every data release: where the economy sits in the cycle, and which way the balance of evidence is leaning.
Chart data: forward paths by scenario
| Horizon | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|
The composite blends fourteen leading and coincident series across labor, credit, and rates into a single cycle reading. Read the methodology →
Scenario controls set the forward paths. Bear, Base, and Bull: the base path carries current momentum forward; the bull path assumes improving credit conditions and stronger real-income growth; the bear path assumes tighter credit and weaker demand. The scenario band widens with the forecast horizon and with disagreement among the fourteen inputs, so a conflicted signal reads as a wider band. The regime readout places the current reading in one of four regimes (recovery, expansion, late cycle, or contraction) and names where the selected path ends; the current regime and signal agreement belong to today's inputs and do not change with the scenario.
Signal agreement measures how consistently the fourteen inputs point in the same direction. It is a breadth measure; it does not state the probability that the model is correct. The twelve-month recession reading shows how the recession estimate will be presented alongside the Composite. In this preview it reads as low, moderate, or elevated; it will carry a probability only when the estimation method, sample, data-vintage policy, and out-of-sample results are published in the methodology.
The Uninsurable Map is the public visualization of the Repricing Index. It compares three related and distinct dimensions of state-level pressure: premium growth, coverage pressure, and physical risk weighted by property exposure. Each lens ranks the states on its own measure.
measures the rate at which homeowner insurance premiums are changing, read against two benchmarks. Against replacement-cost inflation, a state reads as repricing for risk when premiums outrun the cost of rebuilding; against shelter inflation, measured by the CPI owners' equivalent rent series, it shows where insurance costs outrun housing costs at large.
tracks evidence that private insurance capacity is thinning: insurer withdrawals, nonrenewals, underinsurance, FAIR plan growth, and migration into other residual markets.
combines physical hazard with the property value exposed to it. The score separates hazard alone from financially consequential exposure; a moderate hazard over dense, high-value property can outrank a severe hazard over empty land.
Rankings name the measure being ranked: fastest premium growth, highest coverage pressure, and highest hazard-by-exposure score. The legend ends and the median are computed from the values on the map.
The Long Dollar shows observed market and policy data for each major economy, read against the United States. It is the context for the Dollar Model, which weighs four drivers: interest-rate differentials, market positioning, terms of trade, and valuation. The model's signal, a 0 to 10 conviction reading of how far the four drivers agree, will appear here when the model is live.
The three lenses are observed measures: each currency's change against the U.S. dollar this year, the year-to-date change in each benchmark equity index in local currency, and each central bank's policy rate. Currency and equity data come from Yahoo Finance and policy rates from the Bank for International Settlements; a tile reads n/a when the source returned no value at the last daily refresh. The broad-dollar reading is the Federal Reserve's nominal broad dollar index from the H.10 release, the trade-weighted measure across twenty-six partner currencies, which is distinct from the six-currency DXY in the Market Snapshot.
The Macro Wall is a descriptive monitoring dashboard. Each tile shows the latest observation and its month, the prior reading, the source and series identifier, and the past two years of history, drawn from FRED and refreshed daily. The pill shows the change from the prior reading, in green when the change is good news for the economy and in coral when it is not; money supply is left neutral. The Wall makes the flow of evidence visible before it enters essays, reports, and future model readings; it generates no forecasts, probabilities, or trading signals.
Select a question to open its answer and jump to the chart, scenario, or map it draws on. Answers about the models describe illustrative readings; answers about the Macro Wall and the Long Dollar use the observed data.
The methodology page documents what each model measures, which inputs it uses, how those inputs are transformed, how outputs should be read, the research traditions behind the design, and where each framework can fail. Production specifications, validation results, and methodology revisions will be published as the models advance.
Status and limitations
The Power Curve Index is a preview of the analytical system under development. Market prices may be current or delayed, descriptive data may come from public or licensed sources, and model readings are illustrative unless explicitly labeled Live production output. Illustrative outputs are demonstrations of method; they should never be treated as economic forecasts, investment recommendations, insurance guidance, or statistical estimates.