The Growth Divergence

Have the world's major economies converged on one growth rate, or split into a fast lane and a slow lane?

Real GDP growth strips out inflation, so the lines compare the pace of output, not its size. Two tiers separate early: China and India run structurally faster than the United States, Germany, and Japan — but the whole field drops together in 2009 and 2020, then diverges again on the way out.

Read level, slope and timing together.

Each line is annual growth, not a level — a line above zero means the economy grew that year; the gaps between recoveries matter more than any single point.

• China's deceleration is the structural story: from the low-to-mid teens in the 1990s–2000s to roughly 5% today — still fast, but no longer double digits.
• The 2009 and 2020 shocks are near-synchronous: almost every economy contracts in the same year, which a growth chart shows more starkly than a level chart.
• India has taken the fast-growth mantle — now the quickest-growing of the six in most recent years, where China once was.

• How big, not how fast?→The World's Economic Center of Gravity
• Per person?→The Income Gap
• What's the price side doing?→The Return of Inflation