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The Shape of Money

U.S. Treasury yields at four maturities, month-end, 2006 to today, as a ridgeline

Unit
Yield, % per annum
Frequency
Monthly (month-end)
Coverage
2006–2026
Evidence Quality
High

Twenty years of U.S. Treasury yields as ridges — the zero-rate decade, the 2022–23 surge, and the 2-year climbing over the 10-year: the curve inverting.

Federal Reserve H.15 · Treasury constant maturities · 3M, 2Y, 10Y, 30Y

Treasury yield, % per annum · one ridge per maturity, short (top) to long (bottom)

Ridgeline, not a line chart: read the SHAPE of each maturity's strip over time, not its height against a y-axis. All four sink to the floor in the 2009–2015 zero-rate era, throw a common crest in 2022–23, and the top two strips (3-month, 2-year) rising above the bottom two is the yield curve inverting — short money paying more than long.

01

Question

What does two decades of the U.S. interest-rate market look like when you can see every maturity at once?

02

Evidence

Each ridge is one Treasury maturity's yield, month-end, since 2006. The whole field collapses to the floor after 2008 — the 3-month bill hits 0.0% by September 2015 — then all four crest together in 2022–23 as the Fed tightens: the 3-month tops out at 5.59% in October 2023. The tell is order: for 36 of the 247 months the 10-year yields LESS than the 2-year — an inverted curve, short money paying more than long. By July 2026 the curve has re-steepened, 3-month 3.83%, 2-year 4.13%, 10-year 4.55%, 30-year 5.08%.

03

Observation

Read how each distribution's peak and spread shift down the stack.

Height is magnitude, not a precise axis: read where a strip sits relative to the others. When the top strips (3-month, 2-year) climb ABOVE the bottom strips (10-year, 30-year), the curve is inverted — the classic recession signal.

04

Assessment

  • The zero-rate decade is the flattest stretch on the board: from 2009 to 2015 the short strips lie almost on the floor while the 10- and 30-year hold a low, quiet band — a policy regime, not a market lull.
  • 2022–23 is a whole-curve crest, but an uneven one: the front end (3-month to 5.59%) rises further and faster than the long end, which is exactly what pushes the curve into inversion.
  • The most recent months show the inversion unwinding — the 10y–2y gap is back to +0.42 by mid-2026 — a re-steepening that historically follows, not precedes, the turn.
05

Advantage

  • What has all this borrowing added up to?The Ledger, Unrolled
  • How hard did inflation force the tightening?The Price Shock, in Bands
  • How did the same shock land on another economy's output?Britain's Lost Month