Below Replacement
Total fertility rate, six major economies, 2000 to today
- Unit
- Births per woman
- Frequency
- Annual
- Coverage
- 2000–2024
- Evidence Quality
- High
Births per woman across six economies — all below the 2.1 replacement line, with China collapsing toward 1.0.
World Bank WDI · Fertility rate, total (births per woman) · SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
Line chart, 2000 to 2024. Total fertility rate (births per woman). 6 series: United States, China, India, Germany, Japan and Brazil. China is highlighted; its latest reading is 1.0 in 2024.
Replacement fertility is ~2.1 births per woman.
Question
Who is still having enough children to hold their population steady — and who is not?
Evidence
The total fertility rate is the number of children a woman would bear at current rates; about 2.1 keeps a population stable without migration. Every one of these six is now below that line. China is the shock: its rate fell to roughly 1.0 — among the world's lowest — as the one-child legacy and a marriage-and-birth slump compounded. India slipped below replacement only recently. The advanced economies have been sub-2 for decades.
Observation
Read level, slope and timing together.
The 2.1 replacement line is the reference that matters: below it a population eventually shrinks absent immigration, however gradually.
Assessment
- China is the outlier down: a plunge toward 1.0 that reframes its entire growth outlook.
- India crossed below 2.1 within this period — the last of the six to do so.
- The advanced economies (Germany, Japan, US) have run below replacement throughout — chronic, not new.
Advantage
- How aged is the population already?The Age Wave
- How long are people living?The Longevity Gap
- How big is the workforce behind growth?The Growth Divergence