Research theme
Strategic Competition
How capital, technology, and logistics shape strategic advantage.
- 68.5%World trade intensityTrade, share of world GDP
- 3.1%US military spendingShare of GDP
- 24.7%China manufacturingValue added, share of GDP
What we study
Geoeconomics
Sanctions, export controls, reserve assets.
Trade
Tariffs, transshipment, bilateral balances.
Defense and Industrial Capacity
Munitions, primes, and procurement.
Standards and Alliances
Technical rules, nuclear pacts, coalitions.
What we believe
Economic capability underpins strategic influence.
Geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and capital have changed the nature of competition. Slower growth can sharpen trade-offs between defense, industrial investment, and other public priorities. Power has a balance sheet: output, compute, energy, alliances, and financial depth on one side, debt, demographics, and institutional erosion on the other. The United States holds the strongest position, and its lead is conditional on converting those assets faster than it accumulates the liabilities.
Bilateral tariffs can redirect trade without reducing a rival's global surplus.
China's global surplus grew through the tariff years while the U.S. bilateral deficit moved to Vietnam.
Compute is the one race still widening.
U.S. private AI investment runs at more than ten times China's, an asymmetry unlike steel, shipping, or munitions, where the gap is closing.
The industrial base is an alliance asset.
Nuclear cooperation, joint defense production, and coordinated export controls can strengthen alliances. Gaps in U.S. supply create opportunities for competing partners.
Featured Research
Latest Research
Surplus to Requirements
China is exporting the savings its households will not spend.
Beijing Springs the Silicon Trap
Nvidia is the latest target of the Chinese Communist Party
Brussels Triggers the Kill Switch
European Union tries to decouple the global EV supply chain.
The Arithmetic of Power
Winning, Losing, and Competing in the 21st Century.
The Two Energy Superpowers
China is setting the clean-power cost curve. America is setting the hydrocarbon supply curve.
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Key questions
Who controls the standard?
Where do supply chains become leverage?
What deters, and for how long?
Which advantages prove durable under stress?