Research theme
Strategic Competition
How capital, technology, and logistics shape strategic advantage.
We follow who controls the standard, where supply chains become leverage, and which advantages prove durable under stress.
- 68.5%World trade intensityTrade, share of world GDP
- 3.4%US military spendingShare of GDP
- 24.7%China manufacturingValue added, share of GDP
What we study
Geoeconomics
Sanctions, export controls, reserve assets.
Trade
Tariffs, transshipment, bilateral balances.
Defense and Industrial Capacity
Munitions, primes, and procurement.
Standards and Alliances
Technical rules, nuclear pacts, coalitions.
What we believe
Economic capability underpins strategic influence.
Geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and capital have changed the nature of competition. Slower growth can sharpen trade-offs between defense, industrial investment, and other public priorities. Power has a balance sheet: output, compute, energy, alliances, and financial depth on one side, debt, demographics, and institutional erosion on the other. The United States holds the strongest position, and its lead is conditional on converting those assets faster than it accumulates the liabilities.
Bilateral tariffs can redirect trade without reducing a rival's global surplus.
China's global surplus grew through the tariff years while the U.S. bilateral deficit moved to Vietnam.
Compute is the one race still widening.
U.S. private AI investment runs at more than ten times China's, an asymmetry unlike steel, shipping, or munitions, where the gap is closing.
The industrial base is an alliance asset.
Nuclear cooperation, joint defense production, and coordinated export controls can strengthen alliances. Gaps in U.S. supply create opportunities for competing partners.
Featured Research
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Unwinding Trump's Tariffs
Six exhibits trace the tariff unwind through federal revenue, China’s surplus, trade flows, consumer prices, and capital goods imports.
Nvidia's Slow Burn Monopoly
Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation no longer turns on whether AI is real. It turns on how long the company can keep the rents.
Jackson Hole and the Conditions for Credible Discretion
Kevin Warsh has pulled the Federal Reserve back from forward guidance. His first Jackson Hole address must show how a more restrained communications regime will preserve a clear monetary-policy rule.
The Saudi Nuclear Deal Tests the Value of American Influence
The agreement could support Saudi industrial development, strengthen the U.S. nuclear sector, and prevent China or Russia from becoming Riyadh’s principal nuclear partner.
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Key questions
Who controls the standard?
Where do supply chains become leverage?
What deters, and for how long?
Which advantages prove durable under stress?