Research theme
Strategic Competition
Advantage that runs through capital, technology, and logistics.
We follow who controls the standard, where supply chains become leverage, and which advantages prove durable under stress.
- 68.5%World trade intensityTrade, share of world GDP
- 3.4%US military spendingShare of GDP
- 24.7%China manufacturingValue added, share of GDP
What we study
Geoeconomics
Sanctions, export controls, reserve assets.
Trade
Tariffs, transshipment, bilateral balances.
Defense and Industrial Capacity
Munitions, primes, and procurement.
Standards and Alliances
Technical rules, nuclear pacts, coalitions.
What we believe
Great power competition will define our lifetimes.
Geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and capital have changed the nature of competition. Global growth has fallen from above 5 percent a year in the postwar decades to roughly 2 percent, and at that rate every gain in defense, industrial policy, or energy security is taken from someone else's budget. Power has a balance sheet: output, compute, energy, alliances, and financial depth on one side, debt, demographics, and institutional erosion on the other. The United States holds the strongest position, and its lead is conditional on converting those assets faster than it accumulates the liabilities.
Tariffs do not shrink a rival's surplus.
China's global surplus grew through the tariff years while the U.S. bilateral deficit moved to Vietnam.
Compute is the one race still widening.
U.S. private AI investment runs at more than ten times China's, an asymmetry unlike steel, shipping, or munitions, where the gap is closing.
The industrial base is an alliance asset.
Civil nuclear agreements, munitions co-production, and export-control coordination decide who can sustain a position, and a partner the United States will not supply will be supplied by China or Russia.
Featured Research
Latest Research
Unwinding Trump's Tariffs
Six exhibits trace the tariff unwind through federal revenue, China’s surplus, trade flows, consumer prices, and capital goods imports.
Nvidia's Slow Burn Monopoly
Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation no longer turns on whether AI is real. It turns on how long the company can keep the rents.
Jackson Hole and the Conditions for Credible Discretion
Kevin Warsh has pulled the Federal Reserve back from forward guidance. His first Jackson Hole address must show how a more restrained communications regime will preserve a clear monetary-policy rule.
The Saudi Nuclear Deal Tests the Value of American Influence
The agreement could support Saudi industrial development, strengthen the U.S. nuclear sector, and prevent China or Russia from becoming Riyadh’s principal nuclear partner.
Diffusion and Control
The July breach separated corporate control of a model from operational control of its behavior, and moved the American AI question from the frontier to the deployment layer.
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Key questions
Who controls the standard?
Where do supply chains become leverage?
What deters, and for how long?
Which advantages prove durable under stress?