Report
The Power Curve 2026 Outlook
The 2026 Outlook examines the concentration of productive capability, capital allocation, and strategic competition.
Research theme
State Capacity
The distance between policy intent and real delivery.
We examine what prevents policy from becoming results, and how institutional capability and public trust shape what governments can deliver.
- 1.44US government effectivenessWorldwide Governance Indicators estimate
- 10.8%US tax revenueCentral government, share of GDP
- 20.3%US interest burdenInterest payments, share of revenue
What we study
Institutions
Central bank independence and courts.
Fiscal Machinery
Tax receipts, debt service, interest costs.
Delivery
Permitting, procurement, and execution.
Human Capital
Education, skills, the public workforce.
What we believe
We investigate the alignment between public ends and means.
Washington can appropriate faster than it can permit, procure, or hire. The tariff regime the Supreme Court struck down, and the refunds that followed through customs, show what happens when an instrument outruns its legal foundation. We follow whether public systems can convert an appropriation into a delivered outcome, and what a loss of institutional credibility costs in interest and time.
Legal foundations are part of capacity.
Policies built on uncertain legal authority risk reversal, implementation delays, and fiscal costs.
Procurement is the defense bottleneck.
SBIR follow-on authority and other-transaction agreements exist and go underused while prime contractors remain the gateway to military demand.
Central bank credibility is a fiscal asset.
Confidence in monetary policy can reduce inflation uncertainty and support stable financing conditions. Perceived political interference can weaken that confidence.
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The White House Report on Science
The report gets the facts right, but draws the wrong conclusions.
Cheap Majorities
Echelon's July survey priced two majorities, and both collapsed.
A Nation Richer Than It Feels
Americans have never been richer, healthier, or longer-lived. They have rarely felt worse about it.
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Key questions
Can the state still deliver at pace?
Where does process become the constraint?
What sustains institutional trust?
How does trust shape the feasible policy set?