Report
The Power Curve 2026 Outlook
2026 is the year of capability concentration, institutional drift, and the multi-pole order.
Research theme
State Capacity
The distance between policy intent and real delivery.
We follow where process becomes the bottleneck, which institutions can still deliver, and how trust changes the feasible policy set.
- 1.44US government effectivenessWorldwide Governance Indicators estimate
- 10.8%US tax revenueCentral government, share of GDP
- 20.3%US interest burdenInterest payments, share of revenue
What we study
Institutions
Central bank independence and courts.
Fiscal Machinery
Tax receipts, debt service, interest costs.
Delivery
Permitting, procurement, and execution.
Human Capital
Education, skills, the public workforce.
What we believe
We investigate the alignment between public ends and means.
Washington can appropriate faster than it can permit, procure, or hire. The tariff regime the Supreme Court struck down, and the refunds that followed through customs, show what happens when an instrument outruns its legal foundation. We follow whether public systems can convert an appropriation into a delivered outcome, and what a loss of institutional credibility costs in interest and time.
Legal foundations are part of capacity.
A tariff, a subsidy, or an emergency power that cannot survive a court is revenue the Treasury will eventually return.
Procurement is the defense bottleneck.
SBIR follow-on authority and other-transaction agreements exist and go underused while prime contractors remain the gateway to military demand.
Central bank credibility is a fiscal asset.
A Federal Reserve that markets believe holds the term premium down; one seen to serve the White House pays for it at every Treasury auction.
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The Power Curve 2026 Outlook
2026 is the year of capability concentration, institutional drift, and the multi-pole order.
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Key questions
Can the state still deliver at pace?
Where does process become the constraint?
What sustains institutional trust?
How does trust shape the feasible policy set?