Report
The Two Energy Superpowers
China is setting the clean-power cost curve. America is setting the hydrocarbon supply curve.
Research theme
Risk and Resilience
Where perceived stability conceals concentrated risk.
- 11.9 moChina reserves coverTotal reserves in months of imports
- 10.4%World population 65+Share of total population
- 2.19World fertility rateBirths per woman
What we study
Supply Chains
Chokepoints, single sources, substitution.
Energy Security
Import dependence, storage, LNG routes.
Climate and Insurance
Reinsurance pricing and physical risk.
Demographics and Migration
Fertility, dependency, and labor supply.
What we believe
The value of resilience can become clearer after a shock.
Efficiency has concentrated production, finance, and logistics in fewer places than the stability suggests: one company's accelerators, one island's fabs, one strait's tanker traffic. We track where redundancy has been engineered out and which price will move first when a shock arrives.
Concentration is the hidden variable.
One supplier's accelerators and one island's fabs sit under most of the world's frontier compute, and no stockpile substitutes for either inside a year.
Currency defense is now a Treasury-market problem.
Japan's yen intervention had to be structured to avoid selling Treasuries because a sale would raise the yields that fund the U.S. deficit.
Aging is the slowest shock and the surest.
Aging can constrain labor supply and increase fiscal pressure. The effects on wages and borrowing costs depend on productivity, migration, and policy.
Featured Research
Latest Research
The Two Energy Superpowers
China is setting the clean-power cost curve. America is setting the hydrocarbon supply curve.
The Uninsurable Map
Climate risk reaches balance sheets through insurance before it arrives as a disaster.
The Gordian Knot of Emissions
Dirty Growth or Clean Stagnation
The Great Energy Surge
Two centuries, compounding demand
Savage take on Trump's National Security Strategy
When lickspittles write.
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Key questions
How does the shock actually propagate?
Where is exposure most concentrated?
How do institutions learn and adapt?
Which chokepoints matter under stress?