Research area

Risk and Resilience

Risk and Resilience now shape economic power through insurance, energy security, chokepoints, redundancy, operational stress, and how institutions learn and adapt to change.

Stress layer · System in view

Insurance, redundancy, energy security, chokepoints, supply resilience, and shock propagation.

Resilience is often priced only after it fails. This theme tracks where fragility is hiding inside stable systems and how institutions learn and adapt to change.

What this theme watches
  1. How shocks move through the system
  2. Where exposure is most concentrated
  3. How institutions learn and adapt to change
Essay

The Arsenal as Portfolio

Prime contractors are acquiring options on the future industrial base with a rounding error of capital, and the sequence rather than the sum is what should concern policymakers.

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Publication record

All work in Risk and Resilience

Reports and memos ranked by publication date with content type, access, and read-time context.

01
Memo

Jackson Hole and the Conditions for Credible Discretion

Kevin Warsh has pulled the Federal Reserve back from forward guidance. His first Jackson Hole address must show how a more restrained communications regime will preserve a clear monetary-policy rule.

Date
Aug 26, 2026
Access
Free
Read
11 min
03
Essay

The Arsenal as Portfolio

Prime contractors are acquiring options on the future industrial base with a rounding error of capital, and the sequence rather than the sum is what should concern policymakers.

Date
Jul 27, 2026
Access
Free
Read
13 min
04
Essay

The AI Arms Race Is Becoming a Contest for Industrial Power

The real question is which company can turn capital expenditure into a self-reinforcing system of lower computing costs, stronger models, broader distribution, higher utilization, and recurring revenue.

Date
Jul 23, 2026
Access
Free
Read
8 min

Showing 5 of 16

Latest update in this area: Jackson Hole and the Conditions for Credible Discretion.