Research area

Capital Markets

Capital markets determine which strategies survive contact with funding costs, liquidity stress, risk premia, and the price of time.

Allocation layer · System in view

Funding costs, liquidity, leverage, risk premia, and the price signals that decide which strategies survive.

Markets are treated as a strategic sensor: they reveal stress, mispricing, and constraint before it becomes visible in output data.

What this theme watches
  1. What the market is actually pricing
  2. Where leverage is changing behavior
  3. When capital costs alter institutional choices
Lead signal

The Yen Problem

Currency intervention moves a price. It does not replace the market mechanism. The yen is now the clearest live test of that distinction, and the outcome matters for how every government defends a currency it does not fully control.

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Essay

The Arsenal as Portfolio

Prime contractors are acquiring options on the future industrial base with a rounding error of capital, and the sequence rather than the sum is what should concern policymakers.

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Publication record

All work in Capital Markets

Reports and memos ranked by publication date with content type, access, and read-time context.

01
Essay

The Yen Problem

Currency intervention moves a price. It does not replace the market mechanism. The yen is now the clearest live test of that distinction, and the outcome matters for how every government defends a currency it does not fully control.

Date
Aug 14, 2026
Access
Free
Read
5 min
03
Essay

The Arsenal as Portfolio

Prime contractors are acquiring options on the future industrial base with a rounding error of capital, and the sequence rather than the sum is what should concern policymakers.

Date
Jul 27, 2026
Access
Free
Read
13 min
04
Essay

The AI Arms Race Is Becoming a Contest for Industrial Power

The real question is which company can turn capital expenditure into a self-reinforcing system of lower computing costs, stronger models, broader distribution, higher utilization, and recurring revenue.

Date
Jul 23, 2026
Access
Free
Read
8 min
05
Essay

The Fed's Rate Swing

The Fed held rates in June, quietly adjusting its easing preference.

Date
Jul 16, 2026
Access
Free
Read
8 min

Showing 5 of 177

Latest update in this area: The Yen Problem.