Report
Betting on the Index
Passive funds hold $19 trillion and 53 percent of all US long-term fund assets.
Research theme
Capital Markets
How capital is priced, allocated, and withdrawn, and what that does to strategy.
- 224.0%US market capitalizationListed domestic companies, share of GDP
- 201.3%US private sector creditDomestic credit to private sector, share of GDP
- 115.8%US central government debtGross debt, share of GDP
What we study
Rates and Liquidity
Term premium, real yields, Fed balance sheet.
Credit
Private credit, bank exposure, risk transfer.
Market Structure
Index concentration and price discovery.
Capital Flows
Treasury holders, reserves, dollar funding.
What we believe
The market and the state are racing to define the future of capital.
The thirty-year Treasury yield told the story of fiscal absorption before any budget document did. We read prices for what they reveal about funding conditions, the term premium, and which borrowers can still execute at a higher price of time. Intervention can move a price; only a change in policy can hold it there.
Long-term borrowing costs depend on more than the policy rate.
Long yields set the price of mortgages, corporate debt, and federal deficits, and the Federal Reserve does not control them.
Debt has moved, not disappeared.
Risk has migrated from bank balance sheets into private credit funds and insurers that report less and mark slower.
Foreign reserves are now a funding-market variable.
When Japan defends the yen through the Fed's repo facility instead of selling Treasuries, the dollar system is being managed to protect the U.S. bond market.
Featured Research
Latest Research
Betting on the Index
Passive funds hold $19 trillion and 53 percent of all US long-term fund assets.
Depth, Speed, Duration
Depth, speed and duration are three different damages that need three different toolkits.
The Financing Merger
A merger of SpaceX and Tesla would be a capital raise conducted in stock.
Why Central Banks Talk
Hall and Woodford made a central bank's words into one of its instruments.
Who Pays For The New Downtown?
Office conversion can create housing. Cities still need to know what their incentives buy, and who keeps the value they add.
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Key questions
What is the market actually pricing?
Where is leverage building beneath the surface?
When does passive flow distort real signal?
How do credit conditions transmit to policy?