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China's Tipping Point

Xi's China is about to experience a demographic shock.

LIVE SIGNALS
Global growth nowcast2.60%
AI compute index18%
Yield curve (10Y-2Y)-0.18%
Consumer confidence104.7
CPI (YoY)3.10%

For the first time in 60 years, China’s total population fell in 2022. Two interconnected trends account for this change (from FT).

  1. Down from 10.41 in 2019, the birth rate in 2022 was 6.77 births for every 1,000 people — the lowest on record.
  2. The national death rate was 7.37 per 1,000 people in 2022 — the highest since 1970.

After decades of its infamous one-child policy, Xi's China is about to experience a demographic shock.